JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday (May 19) that the markets have not accounted for the risks of inflation, stagflation, credit spreads, tariffs and other challenges.
Dimon said at the bank’s investor day that the chances of inflation and stagflation are greater than people think; credit spreads haven’t accounted for a potential downturn; the impact of tariffs is difficult to predict; and geopolitical risks are high, Bloomberg reported Monday.
The report said markets have recovered from declines seen when the Trump administration announced tariff policies and when Moody’s Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating from its top level.
“People feel pretty good because you haven’t seen an effect of tariffs,” Dimon said during the event, per the report. “The market came down 10%, it’s back up 10%; I think that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
It was reported Monday that despite economic uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase is projecting that it could earn more from interest payments this year.
Jeremy Barnum, the bank’s chief financial officer, told investors that JPMorgan’s net interest income — the difference between what it pays on deposits and makes from interest payments — could increase by $1 billion this year. However, he said it was too soon to adjust the full year NII projection of $94.5 billion.
Meanwhile, the bank estimated that its net charge-off rate, the share of credit card debt that will not be repaid, will come to between 3.6% and 3.9% for 2026, compared to the 3.6% net charge-off rate JPMorgan expects to see this year.
Marianne Lake, CEO of consumer and community banking, said that while consumers and small businesses remain financially healthy and resilient, consumer confidence and small business sentiment have “definitely worsened.”
More than half of businesses in goods-producing sectors anticipate negative impacts from tariffs, an increase from previous months, according to the May edition of PYMNTS Intelligence’s the 2025 Certainty Project, “Tariffs and Business Uncertainty: The Current State of Play.”
The report found that this sentiment is driven by expectations of supply chain disruptions, product delivery delays and rising raw materials costs and that the uncertainty is influencing business decisions.
