If the general attitude of global business is based on economic uncertainty, American Express (Amex) never got that email.
The company is greeting the balance of 2025 with optimism, even as many of its peers and the broader business community gird themselves for economic turbulence. While much of Wall Street frets over fluctuating consumer confidence and the specter of rising unemployment, American Express executives see enough stability in spending, particularly among its affluent and younger customer segments, to hold firm on healthy revenue and earnings targets.
Amex Chairman and CEO Stephen Squeri underscored the company’s confidence by reiterating full-year guidance of 8% to 10% revenue growth and earnings per share between $15 and $15.50. He acknowledged the continuing uncertainty in global markets but emphasized that American Express’ projections already factor in a potential peak weighted average unemployment rate of around 5.7%. That figure, he noted, gives the company enough leeway to weather potential macroeconomic headwinds.
CFO Christophe Le Caillec said that Amex’s core strengths, particularly its fee-based model and premium customer base, have remained robust through the year’s first quarter.
While Q1 was the subject of pessimistic projections from analysts, earnings season has so far shown surprising stability. A point of keen interest for analysts has been the notion of a consumer “pull forward,” wherein some fear that travel and big-ticket purchases made in late 2024 or early 2025 could artificially inflate first-quarter numbers.
Squeri was unequivocal in allaying these concerns.
“We really haven’t seen any pull forward at all,” he told investors in an earnings call. “From a consumer perspective, we’ve seen no pull forward at all.” Squeri pointed out that spending in January, February and March, as well as the first half of April, has been consistent, with only minor fluctuations from month to month.
He also noted that high-income earners are continuing to spend on travel, a key category for Amex.
“We had the highest number of travel bookings that we’ve ever had,” he said, attributing this in part to pent-up demand but also to a broader trend of consumers prioritizing experiences and leisure. Even small business clients, who have reported incremental increases in wholesale and other expenditures, have not shown the kind of one-time burst analysts might associate with a “pull forward” phenomenon.
Amex has long viewed Generation Z and millennials as critical growth drivers. Squeri reiterated that belief, citing both higher average FICO scores and lower delinquency rates compared to broader industry benchmarks.
“Our millennial and Gen Zs are performing significantly better both from a FICO perspective and from a delinquency perspective than the industry,” he said. Though this younger cohort typically spends about 20% less overall than older generations, its spending is growing at a swift clip, particularly in international markets, where executives reported a 22% year-over-year jump.
The company also noted that younger consumers tend to revolve balances less often, but that trend does not appear to be dampening revenue.
See also: 85% Of Gen Z Prefers Digital Payments to Cash
Instead, Squeri and Le Caillec said, it points to a financially disciplined new generation of cardholders who use American Express cards for convenience, perks and points instead of as a fallback for everyday liquidity. Squeri suggested that this group’s robust spending patterns, despite headlines about student loan repayment and rising living costs, reflect American Express’ ability to attract upwardly mobile young professionals.
Beyond generational breakdowns, Squeri stressed that American Express’ overarching customer base skews toward higher-income, more resilient cardholders.
“If you look at our card base now versus our card base in 2019, it is more premium than it was at that point with higher FICOs,” he said.
This premium positioning helps insulate the company, according to Squeri, against broad fluctuations in consumer confidence. Le Caillec reinforced that the company’s fee-driven model further buffers it from swings in consumer sentiment. Over the past few years, a significant portion of new accounts (around 70% this quarter) has been on fee-paying products.
Meanwhile, American Express has successfully refreshed numerous card offerings, allowing the firm to raise annual fees only when it correspondingly enhances card benefits. In Squeri’s words: “We don’t raise fees indiscriminately. You raise fees when you add value.”
Despite threats of recession, Squeri said that the company remains committed to long-term investment in technology, small-business solutions and new product refreshes. Squeri acknowledged that if the economy takes a severe turn, small businesses might feel the pinch first, but he stressed that the company would not abandon its forward-looking strategy.
“I’m not going to pass up good opportunities to invest for the future just to hit a number,” he said, reflecting a willingness to absorb short-term volatility in service of building a more durable business.
By the numbers, on an FX-adjusted basis, revenue rose 8% year over year — or 9% when factoring out the leap year impact — to $17 billion. Total Card Member spending also grew at a steady clip, up 6% (7% excluding the extra day), outpacing results across pivotal metrics such as customer retention, demand for premium products and credit performance. These figures not only match but, in many respects, surpass the levels seen in 2024.
Given the stable spending and credit trends, and in light of current economic conditions, American Express is standing by its full-year forecast for 8% to 10% revenue growth and earnings per share between $15 and $15.50, the ranges first set in January.
While those targets may be influenced by broader macroeconomic developments, the company said it remains focused on driving long-term growth by supporting its customers and colleagues, exercising disciplined expense management and selectively investing in its business.
